That
Carbon dioxide levels are rising is indisputable. Measured by Dr
Keeling atop Hawaii's tallest volcano since the 50's, the atmosphere's
CO2 concentration has increased from 330 parts per million by
volume (ppmv) to 380. It's estimated that at the start of the industrial
revolution, CO2 levels were of the order of 250 PPM.
Even the
best outcome, with efficiencies and the use of renewable energy, is CO2
concentration levelling of at 450 ppmv. It's anybody's guess what
such high levels might cause, but temperature increases as high as 6°C
by the end of the 21st century are not beyond possibility.
The
CO2 level also needs to be put into some perspective.
Without any CO2
, the planet would be 24°C COLDER . . . . . . obviously, very
low atmospheric levels of CO2 have quite an impact on the temperature
of the Earth. It is the uncertainty of what we are doing to the climate
which is particularly worrying.
This
temperature chart clearly shows the upward trend in global temperature
since the 1880s. If anything, the trend is getting worse with the
hottest ten years on record occuring in the last 12.
The biggest change is occuring at the poles, where huge chunks of ice are breaking off Antactica, and permafrost as well as glaciers are melting at full speed in Alaska. In fact, glaciers all over the world are melting rapidly, even those near the tropics.
Antarctica was historically a continent where it never rained, and because of this, tents used in expeditions never needed to be waterproof. Today, it now occasionally rains in summer, and equipment has had to be modified to suit the new conditions. This is a particularly worrying trend, because the Earth's weather patterns are determined by the difference in temperature between the poles and the equator. As this difference diminishes, climatologists are predicting fiercer storms, wet regions getting wetter, and dry areas getting drier. Sea level rises are already occuring.
This
is causing a very worrying trend. Munich Re, one of the world's largest
insurance companies, has been analysing its losses (and those of the rest
of the world's insurance companies) caused by extreme weather events.
During
the 1970s and 1980s, annual losses varied between 1 and 4 billion US$ per
annum. Quite suddenly, in 1990, these losses started to sky rocket
at an annual rate of growth of 10%, something economists only dream about
with regard to the economy. In 2000, total losses exceeded US$100
billion. . . . . in 2002 alone, flooding in Europe exceeded US$50
billion.
The chart above shows how if this trend continues, and assuming Business As Usual GDP growth at 3% per annum, then insurance losses will EXCEED the world's GDP by 2065. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that the world will be bankrupt well before then.
No-one
seems terribly concerned at this stage because, even on this graph, losses
are miniscule compared to GDP. Exponential growth, however, has a
way of sneaking up on the unwary.